Monday, January 31, 2011
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Australian Dollar in profile
OK this chart goes back to the 24th of this month , I have removed time and compressed the previous 4 days distrubition.
the profile on the right represents trading through friday against a static background.
The things to note are the influence of the background ..
by removing time it is possible to view the process without a sense of randomness, presented by the order filling process.
We can see clearly that the market has moved from the top of the distribution to the botton and back again, this process is not randon.
A couple of levels to watch during current development.
The last profile shows some responsive buying with current resistance @ 9895 a break below 9830 would suggest a move lower and new price discovery . refer to low time frame indicators for entries and exisits.
the profile on the right represents trading through friday against a static background.
The things to note are the influence of the background ..
by removing time it is possible to view the process without a sense of randomness, presented by the order filling process.
We can see clearly that the market has moved from the top of the distribution to the botton and back again, this process is not randon.
A couple of levels to watch during current development.
The last profile shows some responsive buying with current resistance @ 9895 a break below 9830 would suggest a move lower and new price discovery . refer to low time frame indicators for entries and exisits.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
wrapping up a distribution I posted on this market ( the aust $ )2 weeks ago.
Well one thing is for sure the horozontal phase of the market has captured this data set.Our value price here is 9890. The mavs have converged 3 times and look like doing it again.Studues can not predict what will happen they are created from time past .When the mavs converge it is logical to assume that all time frame participants are drawn together.
The market won't move untill there is some outside influence to create an imbalance and a change in the market participants perception of value. No computer study has a direct line to the future.In that sense the process of orders commimg into the market is completly random.The one thing that is not random here is the nature of the market .It's horozontal building a distribution rejecting th highs and lows, in this phase of development , we can't tell in advance when a level will be rejected we only know that moves away from value see the price eventually return to it.
For the 250 odd 1 hr bars in this distribution 77 of them have done just that traded at the value price of 9890 (30%).Is it going to break up or down ??? I don't know I can only try to join in once the imbalance occours .
Well one thing is for sure the horozontal phase of the market has captured this data set.Our value price here is 9890. The mavs have converged 3 times and look like doing it again.Studues can not predict what will happen they are created from time past .When the mavs converge it is logical to assume that all time frame participants are drawn together.
The market won't move untill there is some outside influence to create an imbalance and a change in the market participants perception of value. No computer study has a direct line to the future.In that sense the process of orders commimg into the market is completly random.The one thing that is not random here is the nature of the market .It's horozontal building a distribution rejecting th highs and lows, in this phase of development , we can't tell in advance when a level will be rejected we only know that moves away from value see the price eventually return to it.
For the 250 odd 1 hr bars in this distribution 77 of them have done just that traded at the value price of 9890 (30%).Is it going to break up or down ??? I don't know I can only try to join in once the imbalance occours .
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
The previous post on this market wrapping up a distribution ..
well now it's overdeveloped.a push to the downside failed and that was followed by a push to the upside which has also failed.
We are at the value price here now ..and no real advantage untill it gets motoring.A 75% pullback of the recient rally is down at 9870 I think thats the level we might see a breakdown ..but yet to be confirmed.
well now it's overdeveloped.a push to the downside failed and that was followed by a push to the upside which has also failed.
We are at the value price here now ..and no real advantage untill it gets motoring.A 75% pullback of the recient rally is down at 9870 I think thats the level we might see a breakdown ..but yet to be confirmed.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Daily distribution of the local equity market
Does our Equity market have a value ? The answer is yes.
The chart below shows the value line at 4700 , swings included it has been to expensive above and to cheep below.the range is aproxmatly 200 points from
4600 - 4800 going back to october the 1st.
Time to move higher ? the current sessions suggest it can with support at 4765.
The chart below shows the value line at 4700 , swings included it has been to expensive above and to cheep below.the range is aproxmatly 200 points from
4600 - 4800 going back to october the 1st.
Time to move higher ? the current sessions suggest it can with support at 4765.
Swind tops and bottoms in Distribution.
The widest point of a distribution curve represents value.( red line)
Above value sellers see an opportunity and below it buyers come into the market.
On the chart below this is demonstrated :: the purple swing tops appear above the value price with the exception of 1.
The black swing lows appear below our defined value.
the mavs have converged around the value towards the downside and it has also recorded a number of swing tops ( in a lower time frame ) at 9840, this market looks like it is going down.a break of 9780 will confirm .
Above value sellers see an opportunity and below it buyers come into the market.
On the chart below this is demonstrated :: the purple swing tops appear above the value price with the exception of 1.
The black swing lows appear below our defined value.
the mavs have converged around the value towards the downside and it has also recorded a number of swing tops ( in a lower time frame ) at 9840, this market looks like it is going down.a break of 9780 will confirm .
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Wrapping up a distribution
Time to be ready again , the movinging avarages are converging towards the center of this distribution. There has been alot of random price action since the down trend moved more horozontal. But at this point all the action is drawing together at the widest part of the curve or the value price of 9888.How long this price will continue to control the market is anyones guess, but one thing is for sure there will be some anouncemant that will cause an imbalance and price will find a new value .
Friday, January 7, 2011
The development of a Distribution continued.
In this post I have chosen the Dow Jones E-mini futures contract as an example.First of all , if we sold the market above the 23% re tracement line , and bought it below the 75% retrace ment line we would have had some good trades.These levels both define the outer limits of the range, or in stastical terms the thrid standard devation of the bell curve distrubtion.
Now our beginning came from a point of effeciency ( arrow ) in the previous range , where all the mavs converged. This market is in it's fourth and final stage of it's development within this range. We can see that our maves are drawing together once more. Of the 232 half Hr time slots it has taken to produce this range 38 of them or 16% have traded at the main value price of 11634 , right on the 38% retracement level.It is not outside possibility that if we again accept prices above this level the market could be set to move higher.Current action has rejected that level , so it's a time for wait and see.With 38 Half Hr hits and the mavs converging it time to be alert.below 11580 and it could signal more down side , and above 11634 and we have an upside possibility.I'm happy to join in once it gets moving.Click on each chart to get a more detiled view.The best way to get a feel for what I have outlined in this post is to identify it on your own chart . Start with a blank chart of the dow , and draw a rectangle or square around the 4 steps I have shown on the bottom chart in this post.learning to identify where we are in the porcess puts you in control of the market and not the other way around.Go on have a go ..the mavs are 144, 55, and 21. the chart is 30 mins..put on the fibs , they can give you the bell curve without the overlay bell curve ..and just see if you can't see what I have described.
This chart below shows the blue profile overlay in the chart above , in it's daily profile sections. Combined it is the blue profile.The widest part of each profile is highlighted to show the price on the day which had the most hits.Above that line prices attracted sellers , and below it the prices encouraged buyers to participate.
This chart below shows the 4 steps of development.
1. is our initial vertical move away from the previous distribution.This move occoured after the previous distribution became effecient, i.e buyers and sellers reached a balance , this can be seen to be confirmed as the moving averages converge at a point.
2. The second step , is the range that stops the vertical movement , with the price action moving horozontally within the range of the initial move up.
3. The third step ; the market rotates about the step 2 range finding some extenshion.
4. The fourth step moves almost right through the whole range , and our moving averages are drawing together here , as the market draws towards another medium term effeciency in preperation for its next move. The important thing is to recognise which stage of development we are looking at . This puts us in control of the market , often the market will skip one of these steps and that tells you that something is exerting an influence that needs to be respected.If we know which step we are in we can join the procession, no need for crystal balls here, if the market decides to move off in a new step one higher now , we can join in and know which part of the new development we are involved in.
Now our beginning came from a point of effeciency ( arrow ) in the previous range , where all the mavs converged. This market is in it's fourth and final stage of it's development within this range. We can see that our maves are drawing together once more. Of the 232 half Hr time slots it has taken to produce this range 38 of them or 16% have traded at the main value price of 11634 , right on the 38% retracement level.It is not outside possibility that if we again accept prices above this level the market could be set to move higher.Current action has rejected that level , so it's a time for wait and see.With 38 Half Hr hits and the mavs converging it time to be alert.below 11580 and it could signal more down side , and above 11634 and we have an upside possibility.I'm happy to join in once it gets moving.Click on each chart to get a more detiled view.The best way to get a feel for what I have outlined in this post is to identify it on your own chart . Start with a blank chart of the dow , and draw a rectangle or square around the 4 steps I have shown on the bottom chart in this post.learning to identify where we are in the porcess puts you in control of the market and not the other way around.Go on have a go ..the mavs are 144, 55, and 21. the chart is 30 mins..put on the fibs , they can give you the bell curve without the overlay bell curve ..and just see if you can't see what I have described.
This chart below shows the blue profile overlay in the chart above , in it's daily profile sections. Combined it is the blue profile.The widest part of each profile is highlighted to show the price on the day which had the most hits.Above that line prices attracted sellers , and below it the prices encouraged buyers to participate.
This chart below shows the 4 steps of development.
1. is our initial vertical move away from the previous distribution.This move occoured after the previous distribution became effecient, i.e buyers and sellers reached a balance , this can be seen to be confirmed as the moving averages converge at a point.
2. The second step , is the range that stops the vertical movement , with the price action moving horozontally within the range of the initial move up.
3. The third step ; the market rotates about the step 2 range finding some extenshion.
4. The fourth step moves almost right through the whole range , and our moving averages are drawing together here , as the market draws towards another medium term effeciency in preperation for its next move. The important thing is to recognise which stage of development we are looking at . This puts us in control of the market , often the market will skip one of these steps and that tells you that something is exerting an influence that needs to be respected.If we know which step we are in we can join the procession, no need for crystal balls here, if the market decides to move off in a new step one higher now , we can join in and know which part of the new development we are involved in.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Up Date A$ 6/1/11
OK ...we have made the retrace almost down to the 75% level ( @ 9856 ). and level with the previous buying tail.It has regestered 20 half Hr bars at 9920 which is probably enough to suggest that the down side is over for now in the medium term.The red bars show that at these levels the volume is quite high , and that indicates that at these levels the larger commercial intrests are prepared to participate in the market.The bulk of the current range is between 9955 and 9890.I think the play here is to fade these levels with caution.The reference points 1. // 3. indicate that there is a possibility that bearish sentiment could prevail ..and untill the we accept prices above the 50 % retrace level 9964( and ref point 1.)we have to be prepared for further falls.However also refering to the background is that buying tail ..I would'nt be entertaining longs if thats taken out.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Distributions .1.
Good Luck and good trading to everyone in 2011.
I'm going to start this year looking at the market ,in it's component parts.
The idear is to see when we are in a distribution phase , where the bean machine is holding court , and when the market changes its character and morphs into a vertical phase of development.The main aim is to learn to identify the condition of the market.
Chart one is the Australian dollar , 60 minutes .
There are four charts in this series below. Click on each chart to get a closer look.
this second chart shows 2 vertical phases and a distribution.( highlighted.)
IN chart 3 below we have identified a begining, where the market moved out of a distribution phase onto a vertical phase. If we start at the beginning ,we now have something to work with. And from the beginning I have added the Fibonacci retracement levels.
This last chart shows a new distribution ( blue ) developing inside the larger distribution.green. You can see that the vertical move came from the center of the previous distribution , the value price. Often when a distribution is comepete , buyers and sellers have reached a balance, the next phase is price discovery , or a vertical phase .
I'm going to start this year looking at the market ,in it's component parts.
The idear is to see when we are in a distribution phase , where the bean machine is holding court , and when the market changes its character and morphs into a vertical phase of development.The main aim is to learn to identify the condition of the market.
Chart one is the Australian dollar , 60 minutes .
There are four charts in this series below. Click on each chart to get a closer look.
this second chart shows 2 vertical phases and a distribution.( highlighted.)
IN chart 3 below we have identified a begining, where the market moved out of a distribution phase onto a vertical phase. If we start at the beginning ,we now have something to work with. And from the beginning I have added the Fibonacci retracement levels.
This last chart shows a new distribution ( blue ) developing inside the larger distribution.green. You can see that the vertical move came from the center of the previous distribution , the value price. Often when a distribution is comepete , buyers and sellers have reached a balance, the next phase is price discovery , or a vertical phase .
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