Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Saturday, February 19, 2011
THE KISS PRINCIPLE
The text for this post is below the charts, hope it makes sense.
Todays post is all about the kiss principle, the best traders I know Keep it simple !
There are 3 charts to review chart 1 is an ordinary 30 min bar chart , the second is a market profile chart.the market profile chart is produced without any tricks it is a simple half hour chart where the time spacings have been removed and each 30 min bar turned into letters , and compressed.Each chart has a fibonacci re-tracement study on it.The point of the post is to show where to start such a study , and to do it in a way that has the trader instep with the market.the 3rd chart shows referece points that indicate how the longer term volume is set in the market, so we know which is the parth of least resistance when making trading decissions.
Markets move when a perception of value changes , this is most often caused by an outside infulence , it can be a central banks monetry policy anouncement, it can be a companies anual report to the market, it can be suply and demand of a comoddity or some world event.Wich ever it is we can be sure of one thing that the news will be in the price.And the truth is that there is no point in speculating the outcome of these events , if we get INSTEP , we can join in anytime.there is so much information that can effect price that it would be impossible to be on-top of it anytime so it's best just to trade the markets output.You may not get set at the very highest or lowest price ..but you will have the securtiy of knowing you are
INSTEP with the majority of participants at any given time.
Untill such an event occours markets distribute through a range of prices
( this process is random , as orders come into the market in random order) , during the process of distribution , all time frame participants can be drawn together, and we see this when moving averages converge.
The whole idear here is to identify when we have a new beginning , because it's our starting place to work from,if you are using a simple trading plan from fib retracements then its important to be working with the relevant data set.ON the profile chart we can see at the letter (a) we have a change in value , more often than not these moves will attract many participants and the period of trading will record higher than average volume.The fib study covers the initial move to (j), this distribution captures the force "at market" that pushed price higher.
notice that the bulk of the (a) period remain single prints .
( the force has with stood the challenge)
On the 3rd chart the reference points ( small red sqrs) show that over time the volume has also pushed this market higher.Further trading opportunities should be look at with a view to capture this backgroung strength.
All 3 charts are of different markets , but the principles remain the same .
chick on each to see the detail, and good luck, keep it simple.
By the way review all the charts and comments on the front page of this blog and tell me if I've been wrong ..
Todays post is all about the kiss principle, the best traders I know Keep it simple !
There are 3 charts to review chart 1 is an ordinary 30 min bar chart , the second is a market profile chart.the market profile chart is produced without any tricks it is a simple half hour chart where the time spacings have been removed and each 30 min bar turned into letters , and compressed.Each chart has a fibonacci re-tracement study on it.The point of the post is to show where to start such a study , and to do it in a way that has the trader instep with the market.the 3rd chart shows referece points that indicate how the longer term volume is set in the market, so we know which is the parth of least resistance when making trading decissions.
Markets move when a perception of value changes , this is most often caused by an outside infulence , it can be a central banks monetry policy anouncement, it can be a companies anual report to the market, it can be suply and demand of a comoddity or some world event.Wich ever it is we can be sure of one thing that the news will be in the price.And the truth is that there is no point in speculating the outcome of these events , if we get INSTEP , we can join in anytime.there is so much information that can effect price that it would be impossible to be on-top of it anytime so it's best just to trade the markets output.You may not get set at the very highest or lowest price ..but you will have the securtiy of knowing you are
INSTEP with the majority of participants at any given time.
Untill such an event occours markets distribute through a range of prices
( this process is random , as orders come into the market in random order) , during the process of distribution , all time frame participants can be drawn together, and we see this when moving averages converge.
The whole idear here is to identify when we have a new beginning , because it's our starting place to work from,if you are using a simple trading plan from fib retracements then its important to be working with the relevant data set.ON the profile chart we can see at the letter (a) we have a change in value , more often than not these moves will attract many participants and the period of trading will record higher than average volume.The fib study covers the initial move to (j), this distribution captures the force "at market" that pushed price higher.
notice that the bulk of the (a) period remain single prints .
( the force has with stood the challenge)
On the 3rd chart the reference points ( small red sqrs) show that over time the volume has also pushed this market higher.Further trading opportunities should be look at with a view to capture this backgroung strength.
All 3 charts are of different markets , but the principles remain the same .
chick on each to see the detail, and good luck, keep it simple.
By the way review all the charts and comments on the front page of this blog and tell me if I've been wrong ..
Sunday, February 13, 2011
A$ monday
Just posting todys price action on the A$....against the static background.
So far we have rejected the prices at the extremes of the previous range.ther is a bar chart a couple of posts ago ago that show a differnt picture .check it out .
today has been a day that buyers have been most dominate so far ...but at this point there is nothing they can see to encourage them to push price above recient extremes.
thats what we know ..now .On the other had there is nothing to suggest they wont try ..our support is down at 1.0003..
So far we have rejected the prices at the extremes of the previous range.ther is a bar chart a couple of posts ago ago that show a differnt picture .check it out .
today has been a day that buyers have been most dominate so far ...but at this point there is nothing they can see to encourage them to push price above recient extremes.
thats what we know ..now .On the other had there is nothing to suggest they wont try ..our support is down at 1.0003..
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Four Minute O'Neill Fitness Test
The O'Neill Fitness Test is designed to give a simple and reliable test of aerobic fitness. Aerobic fitness is a good indicator of general condition as it underpins 95% of all forms of activity.
After about 10 mins familiarisation with the Concept2 Indoor Rower, the test can be carried out to get an indication of baseline fitness by simply comparing the distance covered in four minutes on the chart.
Age ExcellentGoodAboveAverageAverageBelow Average
19-29 1281 1241 1161 1080 1000
30-39 1237 1197 1117 1037 957
40-49 1219 1178 1098 1018 938
0-59 1182 1142 1062 982 901
60-69 1141 1101 1021 940 860
70-79 1061 1020 940 860 780
80-89 993 953 872 792 712
After about 10 mins familiarisation with the Concept2 Indoor Rower, the test can be carried out to get an indication of baseline fitness by simply comparing the distance covered in four minutes on the chart.
Age ExcellentGoodAboveAverageAverageBelow Average
19-29 1281 1241 1161 1080 1000
30-39 1237 1197 1117 1037 957
40-49 1219 1178 1098 1018 938
0-59 1182 1142 1062 982 901
60-69 1141 1101 1021 940 860
70-79 1061 1020 940 860 780
80-89 993 953 872 792 712
Friday, February 11, 2011
Why do moving averages converge .
The chart shows the convergence of the mavs (21,55,144 )
But why do they converge ????
Because all the participants reach a conclusion , time allows them to be drawn together , to reach a balance or agreement of value.
If it is decided the value of something is $1 then at that point there is nothing to facilitate trade , in otherwords thers no imbalance everyone agrees !
This balance will occour at the center of a distribution of prices, once reached , to faciliate trade something must create an imbalance , and is usually some revevant anouncemant.
We can see in the chart how the market has completed a round trip.
From the initial breakout it has retreated 100% completing a distribution.
At some point in the future the maves will converge once again and from that point we will get a new move . Each distribution in prices has a beggining and an end, but the market moves on add on forever , continually moving from balance to imbalance ..or from effeciency to ineffeciency and back again .Or in other words the Mav convergence , is the end of one phase and the beginning of something new.
good luck.
But why do they converge ????
Because all the participants reach a conclusion , time allows them to be drawn together , to reach a balance or agreement of value.
If it is decided the value of something is $1 then at that point there is nothing to facilitate trade , in otherwords thers no imbalance everyone agrees !
This balance will occour at the center of a distribution of prices, once reached , to faciliate trade something must create an imbalance , and is usually some revevant anouncemant.
We can see in the chart how the market has completed a round trip.
From the initial breakout it has retreated 100% completing a distribution.
At some point in the future the maves will converge once again and from that point we will get a new move . Each distribution in prices has a beggining and an end, but the market moves on add on forever , continually moving from balance to imbalance ..or from effeciency to ineffeciency and back again .Or in other words the Mav convergence , is the end of one phase and the beginning of something new.
good luck.
E-mini S&P 500 and market comentary.
This market can not go down untill all the bears are long !!
Ok lets get down to buisness.
2 charts ; one a conventioal bar chart 30 minutes , showing the bars that produce above average volume ( highlighted in red and magenta).We had quite a high volume push into the breakout higher last session.With alot of people calling a market top last week you could imagine some of this volume was those with short positions covering.
The bulk of the volume in this distrubition is contained between 1318.50 down to 1314.25 this in statistical terms is the first standard deviation of the bell curve.
To trade the curve you can fade the price movement outside the high volume area
( 1st standard dev)in an auction system , like any real estate auction most people will participate at where there is a perception of value, and in that situation buyers will drop off as the price moves futher away from value.
Whilst this market has witheld the bullish back ground it is no surprise that recient anouncements have maintained this bullish stance and as a result the perception of value is now higher.Buyers buy when they assume that at some point in the future they will sell at an even higher price and make profit.
Chart 2 is a profile chart , where the 30 minute bars have been converted to small squares and time has been compressed.It is set to show the daily distrubitions.Support 1310.25 was tested many times but failed on each occassion to break.Some will rush to say this is a false break ..but how can they know that before it is confirmed, all the evedience suggests here that the most likely outcome from this distribution is higher prices , exactly what has happened.They will say things like the volume was low ..thats rubbish ,the volume wasent low its right there in red, the daily volume may be low compared to a high voulme month like last october or so ..but for this distrubiton ..in the NOW the volume was high.On the previous day the higher volume bars pushed the market higher from the bottom of this distrubition.it drifted back down during the night session on low volume only to find support and once again presenting value to buyers.Some people make predictions about the market without acutually taking time to look at what has happened , there to intrested in the last session bar , it's the background that drives price.
Our support now is from 1322 down to 1319
To get the detail click on the charts to make them bigger on your screen.
The pump price of petrol in the USA is at an all time high !...70c a ltr !!!
Ok lets get down to buisness.
2 charts ; one a conventioal bar chart 30 minutes , showing the bars that produce above average volume ( highlighted in red and magenta).We had quite a high volume push into the breakout higher last session.With alot of people calling a market top last week you could imagine some of this volume was those with short positions covering.
The bulk of the volume in this distrubition is contained between 1318.50 down to 1314.25 this in statistical terms is the first standard deviation of the bell curve.
To trade the curve you can fade the price movement outside the high volume area
( 1st standard dev)in an auction system , like any real estate auction most people will participate at where there is a perception of value, and in that situation buyers will drop off as the price moves futher away from value.
Whilst this market has witheld the bullish back ground it is no surprise that recient anouncements have maintained this bullish stance and as a result the perception of value is now higher.Buyers buy when they assume that at some point in the future they will sell at an even higher price and make profit.
Chart 2 is a profile chart , where the 30 minute bars have been converted to small squares and time has been compressed.It is set to show the daily distrubitions.Support 1310.25 was tested many times but failed on each occassion to break.Some will rush to say this is a false break ..but how can they know that before it is confirmed, all the evedience suggests here that the most likely outcome from this distribution is higher prices , exactly what has happened.They will say things like the volume was low ..thats rubbish ,the volume wasent low its right there in red, the daily volume may be low compared to a high voulme month like last october or so ..but for this distrubiton ..in the NOW the volume was high.On the previous day the higher volume bars pushed the market higher from the bottom of this distrubition.it drifted back down during the night session on low volume only to find support and once again presenting value to buyers.Some people make predictions about the market without acutually taking time to look at what has happened , there to intrested in the last session bar , it's the background that drives price.
Our support now is from 1322 down to 1319
To get the detail click on the charts to make them bigger on your screen.
The pump price of petrol in the USA is at an all time high !...70c a ltr !!!
Monday, February 7, 2011
A$ trade setup Z says buy 10080
Look at the opening and closing prices in the profiles...( red o is open and red #is close)
how many are positive 4 of 5 .. drrrr buy the bugga !! sand r gave us a buy level ..I filled us now we have to decide what to do with some profits ..
thats not to hard a dissision to make is it ..sheeeezzz !
how many are positive 4 of 5 .. drrrr buy the bugga !! sand r gave us a buy level ..I filled us now we have to decide what to do with some profits ..
thats not to hard a dissision to make is it ..sheeeezzz !
Friday, February 4, 2011
spi weeks end 5/2
Every picture tells a thousand words as they say .
Well here's a market looking for the arse end of the donkey .
there are 25 half hr bars ( or letters ) that have traded at 10087 and 21 at 10140.
I think it's resnoable to say that during this data set the market has defined 10087 as fair value and we have closed winthin a few ticks of it .
Computer charts have a default , and they put a gap between the bars or candled bars on all the charts.thats what you get , like it or not, the software vendors are telling you this is how you read the market because thats the way we put it foward.
Now go... allong and put on it a whole lot of studies that we have designed to help you work out whats going on ..GREAT !! to easy !!! ... is it any wonder 95% of people that try fail.
I great trader once said to me " don't be dictated to "
I take those words with a sense of caution, but I have used my format to cloapse time .and split ranges to suit the way i read the market and to find out just what it is thats going on as the various orders are processed through the market .
Nobody can predict the future but from looking at the activity we can get a fair idear of what every one is doing at the time ..they have blindfolds on when there playing pin the tail on the donkey ..they just try to feel there way around.
long or short here ?? would'nt touch it with a ten foot pole .. other gurus can have a go at being 50% right. it wont trade below 10065 in this data set ..and it re connects higher at 10120.the last profile suggests that most of the short term participants has been wise to exit over the weekend ...good on em !Leaving the previous sell off in tact ..we will have to wait untill the market reopens to see if it's going to continue.
Well here's a market looking for the arse end of the donkey .
there are 25 half hr bars ( or letters ) that have traded at 10087 and 21 at 10140.
I think it's resnoable to say that during this data set the market has defined 10087 as fair value and we have closed winthin a few ticks of it .
Computer charts have a default , and they put a gap between the bars or candled bars on all the charts.thats what you get , like it or not, the software vendors are telling you this is how you read the market because thats the way we put it foward.
Now go... allong and put on it a whole lot of studies that we have designed to help you work out whats going on ..GREAT !! to easy !!! ... is it any wonder 95% of people that try fail.
I great trader once said to me " don't be dictated to "
I take those words with a sense of caution, but I have used my format to cloapse time .and split ranges to suit the way i read the market and to find out just what it is thats going on as the various orders are processed through the market .
Nobody can predict the future but from looking at the activity we can get a fair idear of what every one is doing at the time ..they have blindfolds on when there playing pin the tail on the donkey ..they just try to feel there way around.
long or short here ?? would'nt touch it with a ten foot pole .. other gurus can have a go at being 50% right. it wont trade below 10065 in this data set ..and it re connects higher at 10120.the last profile suggests that most of the short term participants has been wise to exit over the weekend ...good on em !Leaving the previous sell off in tact ..we will have to wait untill the market reopens to see if it's going to continue.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
12 hrs later on A$
OK the previous post A$$ 8.30 shows part of this trade setup.
On that chart we begin with some buying against the static background in the first split ( o,p,q,r) periods....if you look at the following data groups it's easy to see that the open close ( red highlights ) show that this buying activity is getting weaker and weaker as time progresses.An finally broke that range to the lower side.
On this chart we can see the result , the last group shows some responsive buying that has thus far failed to push through the medium term resistance @ 10038
The bulk of this data shows that the sellers are firmly in control of each data set throughtout the previous session.
It's intresting to note that the c,d,f profile shows the open close almost even , indicating the sellers have backed off , which is then followed by responsive buying in the last ( g,h,i j,k) data set.Only to hit resistance established during the previous session. Although in the srt term the responsive buyers have control it is important not to foprget the background when looking at future developments.
On that chart we begin with some buying against the static background in the first split ( o,p,q,r) periods....if you look at the following data groups it's easy to see that the open close ( red highlights ) show that this buying activity is getting weaker and weaker as time progresses.An finally broke that range to the lower side.
On this chart we can see the result , the last group shows some responsive buying that has thus far failed to push through the medium term resistance @ 10038
The bulk of this data shows that the sellers are firmly in control of each data set throughtout the previous session.
It's intresting to note that the c,d,f profile shows the open close almost even , indicating the sellers have backed off , which is then followed by responsive buying in the last ( g,h,i j,k) data set.Only to hit resistance established during the previous session. Although in the srt term the responsive buyers have control it is important not to foprget the background when looking at future developments.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
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