Distributions .1.

Good Luck and good trading to everyone in 2011.
I'm going to start this year looking at the market ,in it's component parts.
The idear is to see when we are in a distribution phase , where the bean machine is holding court , and when the market changes its character and morphs into a vertical phase of development.The main aim is to learn to identify the condition of the market.
Chart one is the Australian dollar , 60 minutes .
There are four charts in this series below. Click on each chart to get a closer look.



this second chart shows 2 vertical phases and a distribution.( highlighted.)




IN chart 3 below we have identified a begining, where the market moved out of a distribution phase onto a vertical phase. If we start at the beginning ,we now have something to work with. And from the beginning I have added the Fibonacci retracement levels.





This last chart shows a new distribution ( blue ) developing inside the larger distribution.green. You can see that the vertical move came from the center of the previous distribution , the value price. Often when a distribution is comepete , buyers and sellers have reached a balance, the next phase is price discovery , or a vertical phase .

Spi in profile 20 /9

the battler

There are 40 hits at 9100 and it getting a little over done..if anything a step 4 move back to 8900 is most likely , the bulk of recient the volume is set above value , and price has not reached higher yet.Mavs are alomst converged and effeciency is close signaling a move is near . However if it falis to break down then it must go higher .

inside dristrubtion 10 /8

Here is an example of a distribution inside another distribution..completing the 4 steps in quick time , it is still part of the 4th step in the larger time frame. and this trading bracket is comming to an end .

SAME AGAIN ! WEEKEND 7/8

Another normal distribution , completing the 4 steps ..there was greater price control in this bracket with a high percentage of time slots hitting the value price of 4537.Mav's converged again going from step 3 into step 4 , and we will probably see another convergence as we wrap up step 4 before moving on.At this point no clear direction but the possibility of testing levels lower should'nt be dis regarded.

Intresting stats.

Intresting that this new trading range has stopped the market dead in it's tracks so far. There are 89 1/2 hr time slots used since we broke higher from the previous trading bracket , of those 89.. ( 44 or 50%) have traded at the value price 4535 which is just above the 50% retrace level( 4528) for the whole rally.IN the previous trading bracket there where 277 1/2 hr bars and only 48 of those or 17% traded at the control price which was higher on the re-trace scale at the 23% re trace level.
SO it's obvious the market has paused ,the current trading is between 4548 and 4520, under 4505 and where back in the old trading range with the value price down at 4467 ..it must get above 4550 to continue higher .AS fair a I can tell buyers and sellers are about even here , there is no imbalance , so there's not much to trade.

44

ONE FOR THE BEARS