Monday, August 9, 2010

inside dristrubtion 10 /8

Here is an example of a distribution inside another distribution..completing the 4 steps in quick time , it is still part of the 4th step in the larger time frame. and this trading bracket is comming to an end .

Friday, August 6, 2010

SAME AGAIN ! WEEKEND 7/8

Another normal distribution , completing the 4 steps ..there was greater price control in this bracket with a high percentage of time slots hitting the value price of 4537.Mav's converged again going from step 3 into step 4 , and we will probably see another convergence as we wrap up step 4 before moving on.At this point no clear direction but the possibility of testing levels lower should'nt be dis regarded.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Intresting stats.

Intresting that this new trading range has stopped the market dead in it's tracks so far. There are 89 1/2 hr time slots used since we broke higher from the previous trading bracket , of those 89.. ( 44 or 50%) have traded at the value price 4535 which is just above the 50% retrace level( 4528) for the whole rally.IN the previous trading bracket there where 277 1/2 hr bars and only 48 of those or 17% traded at the control price which was higher on the re-trace scale at the 23% re trace level.
SO it's obvious the market has paused ,the current trading is between 4548 and 4520, under 4505 and where back in the old trading range with the value price down at 4467 ..it must get above 4550 to continue higher .AS fair a I can tell buyers and sellers are about even here , there is no imbalance , so there's not much to trade.

44

Friday, July 30, 2010

WEEKEND 31/7

Another perfect distribution following the 4 steps in the same fashion as last weekends post .In the 4th step we hit the 50% re-trace at 4423 ( low was 22) and now a perfect little distribution inside the whole thing as we wrap up step 4.Just where we are headed out of this I can't tell , it's looks like we will achieve another effeciency in this step 4 process as the mavs come together and where we go from there will be the go with entry.






Thursday, July 29, 2010

RE-TRACE AT LAST 30/7

Took awhile comming with 46 1/2 hr hits at 4488 before it finally cracked getting set wasen't too hard with a sell order at the highs and a 10 tick stop loss.The market generally moves away fast , when it hits the 3rd standard deviation of the curve. The risk is a breakout , which happens sometimes but in this case it did'nt and I put that down to the massive development in the previous bracket and also the range in the emini S&P ...a chart I set up some time ago.That chart show two things firstly the relationship between the vertical and horozontal nature of the market and also value ..the blue line being the 200 day MA ..above it the market has been to expensive and below it too cheep.



Tuesday, July 27, 2010

28/7

ANOTHER NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
aprox 27 1/2 hrs at value 4472 puts us in the 3rd step of the curve , a 10-15 tick range extention to the upside last night was quickly rejected.Our mav's are drawing closer toegther and a session or 2 should have us close to an effeciency.With the CPI figure today any thing can happen but while the selling tail above 4500 remains in place, I'm sure we will see the lower side of the bracket sooner or later.